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Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Matt Simmons - dead at 67, RIP

I've enjoyed Matt Simmons take on things oil over the last 25 years or so.  Really enjoyed his book Twilight in the Desert - an oil industry classic alongside The Prize.  Funny, the two books are written by oil industry analysts who are polar opposite in their beliefs - Daniel Yergen (The Prize and Cambridge Energy Research Associates CERA) the perennial oil industry sell-side yes man, might has well been on the XOM payroll - "technology" will overcome depleting oil resources..v...Matt Simmons the main proponent of "Peak Oil", which "occurred" in 2005...

Recently, and I have stated this openly, Matt seemed to be loosing his grip on reality with respect to the Macondo well blowout.  He was a financier, researcher, numbers guy, not an engineer, technical guy and, in my mind, somewhat sullied his reputation making outrageous claims at to what happened and what was happening subsequent to the blowout.  It was reported that he was hugely "short" bp shares.  I guess you could say he put his money where his mouth was.  In any case, love him or hate him, he will be missed.

"DEBATE OVER PEAK OIL FAR FROM OVER
Matt Simmons was known for his research in support of peak oil, a theory of waning world oil supply that dates back decades.

The term was coined in the 1950s by M. King Hubbert, a Shell oil geophysicist who predicted U.S. oil production would peak in 1970 and decline at the same rate it rose. He was right about the peak date for U.S. supply. The oil embargoes of the early 1970s helped put an exclamation point on his prediction as Americans sat in long lines waiting for gasoline.

But Hubbert's prediction about the rate of decline was off, and his prediction that global oil production would peak around 2000 proved wrong.

The counterargument to imminent peak oil - supported by organizations including IHS-Cambridge Energy Research Associates - is that improving technologies will make it possible for companies to find more oil and get more out of existing fields.

The global recession has dampened energy demand, but the debate is far from over. Peak oil theorists note that oil prices still are elevated and that much of the data on global reserves is in the hands of national oil companies or governments that benefit from higher numbers.

TOM FOWLER"

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/7146548.html





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