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Monday, May 31, 2010

Weekend Motorsports

Well, it was a good Sunday of racing - F1 GP of Turkey, Indy 500, and the Nascar Charlotte 600.

F1

Ok, now you and your teammate are running 1 and 2 with your main rivals closing in and running 3 and 4.  Not, that any teammates in F1 would ever feel a rivalry with one another, no egos involved, no not here.  Webber is conserving fuel which allows Seb to close in on him and also for Lewis and Jenson to close in as well.  Seb says hell, why not get around my teammate and go for the glory - never mind that Webber is one of the hardest guys to pass and is known to give no ground, but, what the heck, he is my good friend and teammate...just go for it...



c' est la vie...

Indy

I don't know, it is classic, but it is a bit boring these days...going around in circles...but, as with NASCAR, these guys are on the edge at all times...Dario Franchitti (the Scot) won for the second time...avoiding one big crack-up and coming in on fumes...



NASCAR

Ever try to find some NASCAR video to embed - betcha can't...this is one tightly controlled enterprise, the only video you find is NASCAR's...and it is Adobe Flash, no embed possible...OK, so be it.

I recently stumbled across Taladega Nights on the tele...and just happened to see the following scene...I had no idea this was part of the story line...funny shit...




enjoy!

Friday, May 28, 2010

What if this is the end of deepwater drilling?



May 27, 2010 by Erik Townsend

1I think we should discuss what it would mean to the economy and the world if deep water offshore oil exploration were outlawed in the wake of the Deepwater Horizon oil rig disaster in the Gulf of Mexico. The United States Government has a long history of inaction in the face of credible warnings, followed by overreaction after something has gone terribly wrong.For example, the nuclear power industry in the United States was basically halted in the wake of the Three Mile Island nuclear powerplant mishap back in 1979. Full article

Thursday, May 27, 2010

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Euro Debt Crisis

...first, look at the chart in the lower half of this post...Whew, I need a smoke......then, watch the following video...




Monday, May 24, 2010

Pimpin' Revisited

I posted briefly about Pimpin' the rooster -

http://red-pill-blue-pill.blogspot.com/2010/04/pimpin.html


...even suggested that Gabby Dog could do him in with one bite

http://red-pill-blue-pill.blogspot.com/2010/04/gabby-dog.html


Well, how fast our children grow, find a job and move out...adios Pimpin'






Saturday, May 22, 2010

EXILED to the Matrix


In an effort to sustain a Friday night tradition and pay homage to a classic I offer you some enduring tunes.




Thursday, May 20, 2010

Delusion, Spin, Toast

I've posted previously regarding bp's Tony Hayward's reaction to the Mocando well blow out.  Initially laying low and trying to shift responsibility to TransOcean, next the blame game culminating in the congressional hearings.


From 11th May 2010

http://andytsgang.blogspot.com/2010/05/bp.html

Now there's this -
Tue May 18, 6:19 am ET
LONDON (AFP) – British energy group BP said Tuesday the Gulf of Mexico leak will have only a "very modest" environmental impact, adding that its engineers are siphoning up twice as much oil as previously thought.
A tube inserted into the gushing leak "is estimated to be collecting and carrying about 2,000 barrels a day," said a BP statement. On Monday it had said 1,000 barrels a day, or 20 percent of the flow, was being retrieved.
BP chief executive Tony Hayward told Sky News television: "I think the environmental impact of this disaster is likely to have been very, very modest.
"It is impossible to say and we will mount, as part of the aftermath, a very detailed environmental assessment. But everything we can see at the moment suggests that the overall environmental impact will be very, very modest."
An estimated 5,000 barrels, or 210,000 gallons, of oil have spewed into the Gulf every day over nearly a month since BP's Deepwater Horizon drilling rig exploded and sank, dragging the oil group into an environmental nightmare.

Video link, straight from the horses ass...Tony digs a deeper hole

As speculated upon previously - this guy is...

















...got butter?

I think Estragon offered to do the butterin'


-----------------------------------

We have pieced together most of this...but, this 60 Minute interview yields yet another harrowing tale...


Watch CBS News Videos Online


Watch CBS News Videos Online

Interesting point to me, the BOP annular preventer is damaged...hmmmm

So, what about bp, can they survive this monumental environmental disaster?  It is not obvious to me that they can.

















Interesting - the blow out occurred on the 20th...

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Lost in the Matrix


If a man Blogs alone while out in a forest does it really matter?



Sunday, May 16, 2010

Music Counter Point


As a counter point to going GAGA on Friday I offer Beethoven's Moonlight Sonata, mvmt 3. Perhaps I can stir some passion in Job and move him to a comment.

Saturday, May 15, 2010

Cirque de Debacle

What we are now witnessing is a show.  A public relations show - theater, kabuki theater, theatre of the absurd all rolled into one.  What we are talking about is buying way out of the money puts here.

This hydrocarbon release will not be stopped until the relief well reaches the original well and they can manage to take it under control.   The folks trying to tame this Mocando well with long shot schemes and wild ideas working 5,000 feet below the sea surface drilled to 18,000 ft below mud line, are pawns in a dangerous PR game.  The folks trying to make something happen are well intentioned, don't get me wrong, and no matter how improbable their success may be, I hope, for all of us, that they are wildly successful at stopping this disaster.

Having said that, can you imagine the public outcry if bp simply faced the likely outcome that it is going to take on the order of 2-3 months to drill the relief well and sat idly by?  This is a show, pure and simple.  But, you know, the same risky mentality, the same lip service to health, safety, and the environment that facilitated this incident is still front and center.

Please see the previous postings -  as more information has surfaced, the lens has focused a bit.  But, The Big Picture has, unfortunately been pretty clear from early on.  If you read the oldest post, you will see that there was an inherent assumption that, of course, the BOP had worked - the last line of defense - from the 2nd to oldest post when we discovered that it, in actual fact, did not work - one god damn sorrowfully bad assumption.

Perhaps Estragon would be willing to weigh in on the oil industry's experience with BOP's.

UPDATE  - 17th May 2010

bp has had some success today with collecting some of the oil spewing from the riser = major good news.

They are indicating a new scheme for plugging the well, one that i was not aware of even the concept.  Apparently, the BOP has some "ports" that can be accessed that would allow the pumping of kill fluid down the well bore.  I don't know how this will work since the ports are way smaller than the well bore.  So, while the kill mud can be pumped into the well bore, at a relatively low rate, will it eventually be able to kill the well - I sure hope so....

Some layers of the spilled oil are reported to be neutrally buoyant within the water column and not rising to the surface.

In addition, the surface portion of the spill is getting close to the domain of the Loop Current, which is an offshoot of the Gulf Stream which flows Northward along the Atlantic Ocean.  The Loop Current is effectively a "tributary", diverting from the coast near Cuba and cutting into the GOM and, after "looping" through a portion of the gulf, back into the Atlantic Ocean - continuity of momentum...

This is not good...

From 23rd April 2010 

From 1st May 2010

From 3rd May 2010


From 4th May 2010
http://red-pill-blue-pill.blogspot.com/2010/05/lunch-in-belly-of-beast.html
From 5th May 2010

From 11th May 2010

Friday, May 14, 2010

Going GAGA


Performance POPArt. TGIF
Lets sample something new for Friday Night entertainment.

Thursday, May 13, 2010

...not a great year on the 3rd rock...

Volcanic Explosion in Iceland Grounds All Planes
Earthquake Rocks Chile
Massive Rig Fire Threatens the Gulf
Chinese Coal Mine Caves In, Hundreds Trapped Inside
Oil Spill Becoming One of Worst Ecological Disasters in US History
West Virginia Coal Mine Collapses, 29 dead
Earthquake Rocks Indonesia
Nashville Faces Worst Flood Ever, Downtown Underwater
Contagion Spreading As Greek Economy Collapses
Haiti Earthquake kills and injuries many


Tuesday, May 11, 2010

bp

I was getting pretty worked up over the past weekend about the attitude and corporate cultural behavior exhibited by bp.  Nothing new, I've witnessed it many times in the past, but to see this behavior as being so ingrained, so culturally pervasive still coming to the forefront, still being the driver of decisions both in the forefront and in the background of the events that have played out since April 20th 2010, had me in a fit of outrage.

My intention was to post about this topic on Sunday, but after two hard days on the bike, I was a bit low on energy, so to speak.   And, indeed the European bank bailout started drawing my short-term attention away from the blowout over the weekend.  Now that the congressional hearings are scheduled for today, whereby you will witness first hand, from the mouths of the company leaders exactly what I am going to describe in the following few snippets.

It is all an incremental financial calculation, everything that bp does.  It is in their culture.  It is not about beyond petroleum, it is not about safety, it in not about the environment.  The business of business is to make money, that goes without saying, but at what level of risk?  What level of supervision and oversight?  Ring fencing the blame and finger pointing is about to be displayed in all its gory detail on your television screens in front of some congressional panel today.

First, let's be clear - the bottom line - this is bp's responsibility, full stop.

bp leased acreage from the USG in deepwater with the intention to make money.  No one put them up to this.  It is their business.  So, when it all goes horribly wrong, how can this all of a sudden be a blame game?  If it was not for bp leasing this acreage and drilling a hole into this reservoir, none of this would have happened.  There is only one ultimately responsible entity and that is bp.

Hayward heard about the blowout at breakfast in London on April 21, about four hours after it began. He said his first reaction was “unprintable.” For the first few days, he kept a low profile. BP judged that Transocean, the owner of the drill rig, should take the lead. Later Hayward deferred to U.S. government agencies such as the Coast Guard.


In early May, BP changed strategies and put Hayward in front of the cameras. The company hired Marine Spill Response to deploy four 210-foot oil-skimming ships and two planes to spray dispersants on the oil. As the crisis mounted, Hayward tried everything at once. 
The first comment I heard from Hayward was something to the effect that bp takes responsibility for the oil spill, but it was Transocean's equipment that failed.  Well, Transocean says that it was the Cameron BOP that did not work when needed - the last line of defense.  Cameron says, it worked when we delivered the BOP to Transocean in 2001, has Transocean modified it without our approval?  Or was it Halliburton's "fault"  they were contracted to do the casing cementing job that may have failed.

bp designed the well construction plan.  bp's company man was onboard directing and approving every critical step of the well construction operations.

bp can try to shed blame to their contractors and subcontractors, but the bottom line, as we all know in this industry, is that the operator is the essential link in the HSE chain and clearly that chain was broken.
_______________

You can't make this stuff up....A special visit by bp officials to the Deepwater Horizon was underway with a celebration literally taking place at the time of the blowout.  The celebration - 7 years of safe operations.

________________

And here is a truly harrowing tale -

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/08/us/08rig.html?pagewanted=1&ref=todayspaper

So these rig hands who survived an unbelievable nightmare, taking a long boat ride to shore and are immediately forced to sign waivers, and all kind of rights away including not to talk to anyone about what happened.  Incredible.

________________________________

bp - Texas City Refinery, Alaska oil pipeline leak due to ignored maintenance, Macondo well blowout...

...and if that is not enough, check this out -

http://www.truthout.org/slick-operator-the-bp-ive-known-too-well59178

Apparently, Oil Spill Recovery systems work on the same principal as the fractional reserve banking system - it ain't there when you really need it...

Complicit in the Valdez spill?  Perhaps, not so directly, but the following article sheds light on the bp culture.

__________________________________________

On the hesitance of bp's Tony Hayward to swing into action since it was "not our equipment" - asshat.

In terms of the 52 yo's tenure at the top of bp, yeah right - Hayward is toast.

Saturday, May 8, 2010

Giro d'Italia

It's all pink...the color of the Giro.  The first of the three majors - cycling' Grand Tours.  

The Giro d'Italia starts Saturday in Amsterdam, of all places...with a prologue, and 8.4 km individual Time Trial...to set the standings...


Not to worry, the beauty of the Italian country side and villages are only three days away.

Who are the contenders?


Let's see -

  1. Simoni is too old to do it again, he may bag a mountain stage, probably has one in him.  
  2. The blood doping Vinikourov will also have a chance on a few stages, he is also looking pretty lean, but he is not a high mountains climber, so he could well fade in the last half of the race - he could wear the maglia rosa for a few days.  
  3. Basso, the reformed doper, owned up, served his suspension, always was a crowd favorite, can he do it without the drugs?  Well, I'll take him as a not so long shot.  He claims to be not quite where he wants to be in terms of conditioning, but that could be gamesmanship, but, if not, he has time to ride himself into top condition for the last week in the high mountains.  He has the recovery abaility needed for stage racing and was explosive in the high mountains...at least when on drugs.  
  4. The Aussie Cadel Evans is targeting this race and has been on form.  He could well do it.  However, he has never been particularly explosive in the high mountains. He has got to be the favorite.  Beat Contador at Fleche Wallone on the finish up the Mur de Huy...gotta recognize for that, but the Mur is not the high mountains 
  5. Carlos Sastre, to me , rides a bit like Evans, but no time trial capability, not that Evans is any serious TTer.  I love Team Cervelo, but I think Carlos is a 2nd or 3rd, at best.  
  6. Damiano Cunego - I don't think he can win it again.  Has not sowed the form in recent years.  He could take a stage or two, could wear the pink jersey.  We'll see.  Love him when he is riding well.  
  7. Garzelli really is a long shot at his age, younger than Simoni, but not really with a style to win - only there for publicity.
I am calling it Evans 1st, Basso 2nd, I'll have to think a bit about 3rd.

It really is a beautiful scenic race...



Watch it here...

Friday, May 7, 2010

Friday Night Jazz - Herbie Hancock and friends



...and getting back to the roots....



...and with some more friends...

Thursday, May 6, 2010

Whew, I need a smoke...

"The panic in the middle of the day was market makers that just disappeared, and every machine on Wall Street was trying to sell into a market that didn't exist. That was a bizarre electronic quant panic of people selling into a black hole. I don't know if somebody pressed the wrong button, but the intraday was a panic machine-led move," said Peter Bookvar, U.S. market strategist at Miller Tabak.








Published: May 1, 2010

Europe's Web of Debt

Banks and governments in these five shaky economies owe each other many billions of euros — converted here to dollars — and have even larger debts to Britain, France and Germany. Arrow widths are proportional to debt amounts. Related Article »







click for full size chart

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

IXTOC I

This was in the news today...





PORT FOURCHON, La. - Crewmen aboard the motor vessel Joe Griffin guide a cofferdam onto the deck as the ship prepares to depart Wild Well Control May 5, 2010. The chamber was designed to contain the oil discharge, that was a result of the Deepwater Horizon incident, before it reaches the surface. U.S. Coast Guard photo by Petty Officer 3rd Class Patrick Kelley. 

  1. Containment Recovery System – BP plans to deploy this pollution containment system today.  Called a “cofferdam,” the structure will be lowered over the largest leak source. 
·  The cofferdam is a 125-ton, 14’ x 24’ x 40’ structure that will be set over the end of the riser (the pipe that normally goes from the wellhead to the drilling ship).  The end of the riser is currently about 600 feet from the wellhead on the sea floor.
·  The top of the containment system will be connected to a 5,000 foot pipe that will convey the collected hydrocarbons to the surface ship, the Deepwater Enterprise.
·  Once on the surface ship, the hydrocarbons will be processed and oil will be separated from water and gas. The oil will then be temporarily stored before being offloaded and shipped to a designated oil terminal onshore.

This concept seems unlikely to work, and potentially very dangerous.  I just hope they don't kill anyone else.


----------------------------------------------------

I was somewhat vaguely remembering a prior blowout.  I moved to Houston to start to work for Conoco end-January 1979.  What I was trying to recall is the attempted use of a "sombrero" to gather the flow above the blowing well...sound familiar?

...my Déjà vu moment of the day...


IXTOC I
Bahia de Campeche, Mexico        1979-Jun-03
On June 3, 1979, the 2 mile deep exploratory well, IXTOC I, blew out in the Bahia de Campeche, 600 miles south of Texas in the Gulf of Mexico. The IXTOC I was being drilled by the SEDCO 135, a semi-submersible platform on lease to Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX). A loss of drilling mud circulation caused the blowout to occur. The oil and gas blowing out of the well ignited, causing the platform to catch fire. The burning platform collapsed into the wellhead area hindering any immediate attempts to control the blowout. PEMEX hired blowout control experts and other spill control experts including Red Adair, Martech International of Houston, and the Mexican diving company, Daivaz. The Martech response included 50 personnel on site, the remotely operated vehicle TREC, and the submersible Pioneer I. The TREC attempted to find a safe approach to the Blowout Preventer (BOP). The approach was complicated by poor visibility and debris on the seafloor including derrick wreckage and 3000 meters of drilling pipe. Divers were eventually able to reach and activate the BOP, but the pressure of the oil and gas caused the valves to begin rupturing. The BOP was reopened to prevent destroying it. Two relief wells were drilled to relieve pressure from the well to allow response personnel to cap it. Norwegian experts were contracted to bring in skimming equipment and containment booms, and to begin cleanup of the spilled oil. The IXTOC I well continued to spill oil at a rate of 10,000 - 30,000 barrels per day until it was finally capped on March 23, 1980


The IXTOC I exploratory well blew out on June 3, 1979 in the 
Bay of Campeche off Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico. 
By the time the well was brought under control in 1980,
an estimated 140 million gallons of oil had spilled into
the bay. The IXTOC I is currently #2 on the all-time list 
of largest oil spills of all-time, eclipsed onlyby the 
deliberate release of oil, from many different sources, 
during the 1991 Gulf War.


IXTOC I oil well blowout, Bay of Campeche, Mexico, June 1979 to 
March 1980. Impacted shoreline on South Texas coast. 







IXTOC I oil well blowout, Bay of Campeche, Mexico, 
June 1979 to March 1980. Well head aerial view. 
http://www.incidentnews.gov/entry/517521
From the Royal Swedish Academy of Science......
But, what about that Sombrero?  

...aha...

Oil Spill Containment, Remote Sensing and
Tracking For Deepwater Blowouts:
Status of Existing and Emerging Technologies
MMS 1999 funded study
http://www.mms.gov/tarprojects/311/311AA.pdf
The Ixtoc I, the largest known blowout event, occurred 
in 160 ft water depth. The “Sombrero” oil collector 
system was designed, built and installed by Brown 
and Root, Inc. for Pemex in an attempt to contain 
the oil flow from this blowout while relief wells 
were being drilled to kill the blowout. There was 
no advance design or planning for this system which
was designed, built and installed in less than three 
months. The “Sombrero” generally was considered a 
failure as it recovered a very low percentage of 
the oil released, and was later removed after it 
suffered a structural failure.

...my hard disk may be old and slow, but the indexing 
system at least is still intact ;-)


Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Lunch in the Belly of the Beast

Had a nice lunch with Job yesterday - our Monday 11:21 at Cafe Benedicte

We were sitting outside with beautiful weather (unusual for the first day of OTC - usually hot and humid) and we both had this ominous feeling.  It turns out that to our right was the BP Houston headquarter complex and to the left was TransOcean's HQ.  Eerie.


















In case you can't make out the sign, it says Transocean.  The building complex in the background is BP's Westlake facility.

Monday, May 3, 2010

GOM Blowout - a clearer picture of what happened beginning to form...

This is an incredible interview with one of the rig personnel who survived.  Please take the time to listen.  The interviewer confuses a few concepts, but the rig hand sounds very legit.

http://www.marklevinshow.com/Article.asp?id=1790422&spid=32364

The Irony noted previously was amped up today.  The Minerals Management Service cancelled the high profile SAFE award ceremony at the OTC.  Rumors have it that it was to be given to BP.  In any case, TransOcean, the rig operator for which the gentlemen in the foregoing audio worked had received the MMS's district -level award last year.

Tony Hayward, the BP CEO was in the MSM today saying that it was the rig operator's (TransOcean) fault., the owner of the equipment that failed.  BP accepts responsibility for the cost of the clean-up (that's the law).  Clearly, the lawyers crafted the defining line in the sand.  But, it is not that simple.

Some technical people are questioning the cementing job.  But, the bottom line, even if the cementing job is a unsuccessful, the BOP is the last line of defense with multiple redundant sealing mechanisms.  BOPs do not fail, or at least are not supposed to.  In the interview above, the man states that they set a deep cement plug as well as a plug with a mechanical seal.  However, even if these were to fail for whatever reason, the BOP should not.   It is TransOcean's BOP.  They are tested and re-tested repeatedly - by regulation.

Guess who was the sub-contractor responsible for cementing (their original business, btw, before becoming a conglomerate) Haliburton.  To which the following was in the media today-

Meanwhile, US services giant Halliburton said its crew cemented the Macondo exploration well but never set a cement plug to cap the bore as operations had not yet reached a stage where a final plug was needed.
After declining to clarify its role on the Transocean semi-submersible rig Deepwater Horizon for the past week, Halliburton today said its crew had performed cementing operations on the rig.
"Halliburton had completed the cementing of the final production casing string in accordance with the well design approximately 20 hours prior to the incident," the company said in a release.
"The cement slurry design was consistent with that utilized in other similar applications." 

The following link has some impressive pictures of the events as they have unfolded since the blowout on April 20th 2010.


Definitely worth a look..

Chapeau Estragon!

Give Credit where Credit is Due



OBAMA'S ACCOMPLISHMENTS TO DATE

The following list was compiled by "Robert P. Watson, Ph.D. Coordinator of American Studies, Lynn University.:

"His first six months have been even more active than FDRs or LBJs the two standards for such assessments. Yet, there is little media attention given to much of what he has done. Of late, the media is focusing almost exclusively on Obama's critics, without holding them responsible for the uncivil, unconstructive tone of their disagreements or without holding the previous administration responsible for getting us in such a deep hole. The misinformation and venom that now passes for political reporting and civic debate is beyond description."


As such, there is a need to set the record straight.

Securitized Souls

Sunday, May 2, 2010

Irony

Monday is the opening of the Offshore Technology Conference (OTC), which is a week long conference combining technical discussion/presentations and product display and sales.  This year there is expected to be some 65,000 attendees.  At the peak of the offshore oil industry there were something in excess of 100,000 in, say the late 70's, early 80's.

http://www.otcnet.org/pages/about/history.html

With the current tragedy taking place in the background of this event, this becomes a seemingly unreal and truly ironic moment.

Saturday, May 1, 2010

Politico-Mike Allen


Interesting daily Briefing produced by Politico news source. Mike Allen, one of many interesting contributors, that selectively edits the daily news to the essential points of the day. He was a guest on Charlie Rose and his daily routine is waking at 4:00am, scans the numerous news sources and selects news items, both personal and global, essential to the Washington community. Apparently his blog is the must read every morning for those in the political scene.
Check out Politico 44 for a daily diary of Obama activities as well.

Gulf of Mexico Well Blowout

This is a human safety and environmental tragedy.  It is not possible to put an economic value on it, it is conceptually infinite.  The risk of it happening, however, is finite and small.

I believe that in a qualitative sense, offshore oil production is safe.  That exploratory drilling is also safe, but definitely more risky.  Production drilling is generally safe, since the reservoir formation and pressure gradient is better understood during the development phase when drilling out the asset.

Companies have different practices in the areas of Health, Safety, and Environment procedures and processes.  Sometimes they are simply lip service, in other companies they are taken and acted upon very seriously.  It really depends on the corporate culture.  BP has a bit of a history here, not that any company is perfect by any means.  It is a risky business for sure.

This is a very unfortunate event that will have devastating consequences.
  • 11 men killed
  • $500 MM floating drilling rig on the seafloor 
  • 5000 bbls blowing-out of the well everyday, with 2-3 months required to drill the relief well 
  • Tremendous clean up activities both offshore and onshore 
  • Damage to the wet lands and shoreline 
  • Prime migratory bird roosting time 
  • Fisherman's livelihood to be seriously affected
The only saving grace, in the long run, is the self-healing capacity of mother earth.

I feel very, very sad.